Joined Up Thinking*

*Or lack thereof

            British foreign policy is a mess. Every week there seems to be a different 'emergent threat' which is then duly completely disregarded by every government department, who pursue there own pet projects. This approach to foreign policy is imperfect to say the least - it means that HM Government and UK plc. have no focus, which impacts the economy, national standing and international impacts of our country. In this little article, I'm going to take a look at some of the priorities all government departments should be looking at and how these would affect the Armed Forces.

Priority One - National Resilience

            The war in Ukraine and soaring energy prices have brought the debate about national resilience closer to the front of people's minds, especially with the realisation that onshore (and off our shores too!) energy reduces our reliance on the whims of foreign nations (whether expansionist nutters or just French) and might even save the consumer some money. Personally, I (and probably most of you too) believe that as much as humanly possible should be done to increase national resilience in several critical areas - most notably gas, food, medical equipment and ammunition. 

            With the UK's pivot away from natural gases, and the plan to achieve Net Zero before 2050, it seems almost certain that stocking a massive warehouse full of coal probably isn't the best way to go around this - after all, HM Government loses all credibility to try and get industry to pursue the move from fossil fuels if it is simultaneously filling up a bunker with the shite. 

            Therefore, the government should probably take the short term financial hit and invest in Rolls Royce's Small Modular Reactor concept, currently in the development stage. RR are planning on building significant portions of them in a factory, somewhere in Northern England or Wales (levelling up) and then performing the final assembly on site (SMR estimates that 90% of assembly is under factory conditions). The SMR is around 10% of the size of a conventional nuclear power station, so could potentially physically replace existing infrastructure, and could generate the same amount of power as 160 onshore wind turbines do - enough to power around 225,000 homes (twitter, correct me if my maths is wrong).

SMRs even look good too -trees!

            Small Modular reactors (in concert with larger traditional nuclear reactors) could provide a baseline of electricity, along with Wind Turbines, strategically placed ones can provide significant power (for example, the Orkney Islands could produce enough wind to power a significant proportion of the Scottish Highlands - government investment could make this happen relatively cheaply, by simply upgrading existing cables). Solar and other renewables could provide an extra surge capacity for the five o'clock rush or when the adverts start during Emmerdale. 

            But how could defence help with this, it is obviously a cross-departmental effort. The MOD could start by championing Rolls Royce's expertise of nuclear reactors (indeed, they've been building them for the Navy for nearly three-quarters of a century) and then perhaps even power Salisbury Plain, or Catterick Garrison with one (they could even use these to power the very reliable electric cars they've bought). 

            Food wise,we have absolutely no chance of being able to produce the entire food needs of this country onshore. Even if the entire population survived on a diet consisting entirely of potatoes, carrots, beef and Mr Kiplings' Cherry Bakewells washed down with Iron Brew and Newcastle Brown Ale, it would be doubtful. Indeed, this has long been one of Britains' greatest weaknesses, with both the Kaiser and Hitler seeing starving the population as their best chance at defeating us.

            We should however, try and create a national stockpile of staple foods and other vital supplies (soaps/hygiene products, paracetamol/ibruprofen and baby products, for example) with the aim of holding enough supplies for around three or four months of absolutely no food imports at all. This could potentially be a job for the MOD to run, perhaps using veteran sub-contractors to assist.

            This would be quite expensive to set up however, but the cost could probably be offset quite a bit if a sensible approach was taken to the food packages. If a package consisted of something similar to the current 24 hour ration pack (which has a shelf life of 2 years), then they could be held in storage for a time of crisis for 12 months and then sent out to be used by the Field Army, Cadet Forces or Families in Need at home or abroad. A similar approach could be taken with the non-food items - although the Army probably won't be needing that many nappies. 

            Ammunition availability  is another problem we might come across in wartime, with Ukrainian forces using up significantly more ammunition than NATO has planned for. The MOD needs to seriously increase it's ammunition stocks in every calibre used (although it should be limiting the different types) and should have at least one (but preferably several) onshore manufacturing facility for 5.56 and 7.62 NATO standard small arms ammunition, 81 and 120 mm mortar bombs, 30 and 40 mm Medium calibre (for naval guns), 40mm CTA, 155mm artillery shells and 120mm smoothbore rounds as well as all our favourite guided munitions (say the line everyone). 

            Truth be told, we're not actually that far away from doing all of this. BAE can manufacture 5.56 and 7.62 at a rate of over a million a day and manufacture 81 mm mortar bombs in Washington (the machinery is capable of making 120 mm rounds with minimal re-tooling). CTA is all fine (BAE have even made 100,000 rounds of it - despite the fact that there's not even a cannon capable of firing it in service yet), 20 and 30 mm rounds are manufactured in Monmouthshire and - with the decline of the 20 mm cannon in naval service - it would be advantageous for BAE to establish a 40 and 57 mm line. 155 mm shells are produced onshore, as well, leaving only 120mm smoothbore not being produced. Considering that BAE make ammunition for the Challenger 2's unique 120mm rifled gun, I would assume they will re-tool that line for smoothbore - which also has a much larger export potential. 

            As well as having a large and scalable manufacturing capability, having a large enough stockpile for initial use in a major shooting war is also vital. The MOD stockpiles some amount in the UK however it would take a while to reach the frontlines (and relying on a small amount of facilities is risky, to say the least). It would, therefore, increase fighting power to set up relatively large ammo dumps in the SBA Cyprus, Estonia, Poland, Brunei, Oman, Bahrain and Singapore.

Priority Two - Foreign Aid

            Foreign Aid is the department of choice for defence commentators and right wing news hosts to advocate raiding to pay for whatever it is needs paying for this week. In all fairness, the DfID (or FCDO as they are now) don't seem to do the best job at distributing their budget, and sending aid to Pakistan and India - who both have nuclear weapons and space programmes - undermines the credibility and point of the department. 

            UK Aid as an organisation lacks many of the logistical supports needed to support emergency relief distribution, which is - for all intents and purposes - projecting power overseas. Take, for example, the Haiti disaster of 2010. The airport was severely damaged, as was the port, needing military intervention from US forces to transfer vital cargo to where it was needed. This came in the form of specialist survey/salvage teams and quite a few large amphibious vessels. 

            The undisputed masters of amphibious landings are the Armed Forces (obviously, it's not going to be the DVLA is it?). UK AID have the need to deploy medical and humanitarian aid to austere locations with almost no infrastructure and with minimal host country support (as there is a good chance local governance has completely broken down), the Armed Forces have an almost identical need in times of war. 

            This takes us on to what I think that the MOD and FCDO should collaborate on - developing and operating a class of Hospital Ships, for use supporting the Armed Forces in times of conflict and in peacetime supporting local civilian populations across the world. A joint funding programme would have to be worked out, perhaps with UK AID funding and paying to maintain the ships with the MOD paying running costs. 

BMT Ellida, configured as a Geneva compliant Hospital Ship

            The ships company proper would probably be RFA but medical teams wouldn't be. It would probably be advantageous to have a Ships Master and separate medical detachment commander, probably a Colonel or equivalent from defence. Having, say, four or five Role 3+ medical teams (with personnel from the Navy, Army, Air Force and Reserve components) would provide a continuously deployable force. The five teams would all be trained to deploy both at sea or in a field hospital. 

            Four ships would mean that a consistent cycle of maintenance, response, planned, response could be set up. Having two ships on a response deployment means that one can be based East of Suez and one West - allowing for quicker response times to incidents across the world. The remaining vessel on planned deployment could operate with a mainly civilian medical team (supported by armed forces helicopter and boat crews) from NGOs, medical students, the NHS or potentially even just general do-gooders in society. 

            Call them HMHS Maine, Bevan, Goodwill and Britannic after the name of about a million RFA hospital ships in the past, the founder of the NHS, the first Royal Navy hospital ship and probably the most famous (and sister of the Titanic). Assuming there's three medical tenders/landing craft on each, have a poll of the great British public to name all 12 - after all, that's never gone wrong before has it (HMHS Hospital McHospital Face). 

            More important than the physical infrastructure, however, is a sense of understanding between the departments - undermined by mutual respect and common sense. Everything possible should be done, both on the ground and back at Whitehall, to avoid a repeat of 3 Para's famous washing machine fiasco. 

Priority 3 - The Tilt

            The third priority the government is always waffling about is the rather controversial Indo-Pacific tilt. The tilt (not a full-scale pivot) aims to re-introduce a British presence East of Suez, a presence not seen on a significant scale since Wilson's premiership. The idea that the Indo-Pacific tilt is going to break down NATOs collective security by allowing the Russians to sneak through is, quite frankly, ridiculous. The actual hard commitment so far is two whole OPVs and a battalion of Gurkhas. 

            The cost of the Gurkha garrison in Brunei is paid for by HM The Sultan so has a negligible cost for the MOD and if Spey and Tamar were sent after the Russian Navy, the crew would probably mutiny. They are, no matter how well built, still just lightly armed patrol ships - not warfighting capabilities. The deployment costs barely nothing defence wise, £3.449 million is the average yearly cost of running a River class. But do we make more than £7 million pound from the links and relationships that Tamar and Spey are forging, I would say, probably, yes. 

            Although it can't be measured, I would hazard a guess that many friendships are being sustained by the White Ensign appearing in a harbour. 

            Imagine, just for a minute, that you're the President of a small Pacific nation, a population of, say, 1.5 million people, centred upon a little archipelago with 500,000 people living across the small islands and the rest living on the main island. You're trying to grow the nation's GDP but a large chunk of the nation's population are functionally illiterate and many people live in secluded communities, mainly accessed via canoe and/or Britten Norman Islander. 

            The police and local authorities are notoriously corrupt, with drug and human trafficking rings becoming more and more prolific. The country has been at peace since it gained independence in the late 1960's so, apart from the occasional token deployment of an infantry company and a couple of staff officers to UN missions in the area, the armed forces' (of less than 5,000 total) spend much of their time policing the country's maritime borders and trying to help stop the widespread police corruption. 

            The armed forces consist of a single brigade, with three infantry battalions, all lacking any transport except a small amount of Bushmaster PPVs (donated by Australia using slightly damaged vehicles brought back from Afghanistan) and a few antiqued lorries (barely in working order). The infantry is armed with SLRs, a few medium machine guns, sharpshooter rifles and a dozen or so 81mm mortars - reserve units are often stuck drilling with Lee Enfields. Artillery support is severely lacking - only a single battery of light guns, purchased second hand after some defence review or other here in the UK. The countries single engineer regiment (around 400 personnel in total) spends most of it's time trying to maintain the countries crumbling infrastructure. The logistics and medical force do likewise - spending more time trying to keep the country alive than training for their role. 

            The Air corps is in a similar sorry state. The singular ageing Huey helicopter hasn't flown in several decades and the small fixed wing detachment can't cope with the pressures caused by the trafficking rings as well as the masses of resupply missions needed to support the small communities. 

            Naval forces are just as bad, the entire fleet consists of a minesweeper that's literally falling apart, a single (quite small) OPV and a pair of newish Patrol Boats - again donated by Australia. The fleet (if we can call it that) is scarred by numerous incidents involving collisions with small boats and officers and ratings are poorly trained.

It all looks a bit bleak, doesn't it

            But now the Chinese turn up and ask you, the President, if you need some assistance on your island. In exchange for allowing their ships to dock, the Chinese government will fund a new port, airport and military infrastructure to go with the shiny new ships, planes and APCs they'll give you. You sign the deal immediately, after all why wouldn't you. 

            These Chinese fellas aren't all bad anyway are they? Sure, those Westerners are always decrying them as evil but why should we trust them - after all it was only 60 years ago when *REDACTED* troops were roaming our streets enforcing their brutal colonial regime. Most of their leaders were alive back then, many might have even been soldiers - occupying our land, stealing our resources and ultimately sealing our fate as just poor, backwards tribals. 

            That nice Chinese man didn't tell you about the loan though, did he? You thought the port was a gift from them to their newest ally. Of course it wasn't, you now owe your soul and all your money for the next century to our almighty overlord Winnie the Pooh, and there's nothing you can do. 

            But what can stop this, at our end (you're not the President of a small Pacific nation anymore, just some random English bloke -unless you're one of my 4 Bahraini readers, in which case you're just a random Bahraini now). Well, of course it's some good old Joined Up Thinking™ (Joined Up Thinking is a registered trademark of Think Defence Ltd, all rights reserved, yada yada). 

            Imagine, just for a minute, you're now a mandarin (I know, you get around a bit) sitting in your lovely home office, wearing the top half of your pinstriped suit (Pinstriped Y-fronts on show to anyone who walks into your spare bedroom), reruns of Yes Minister playing in the background. 

            What department you're mandarining for is irrelevant; it could be the MOD, FCDO, whatever the Board of Trade go by nowadays, like I said, irrelevant.  Now, your mate from the Foreign Office rings you up, and tells you about his shitty overseas job - he has to put his pinstriped trousers on and leave his spare bedroom, for Gods sake! 

Crikey, not my pinstriped trousers!

            Now, you do some snooping, as does your friend, and finds out what the President already knows about the state of this small Pacific country. (I'm not summarising, you all know the score). 

            So, with the power of speedy Joined Up Thinking™, a working group is convened on the country and a plan of action is created. It begins with gaining the trust of the nation's politicians and people (politicians are quite easy - booze at the embassy and/or state visit to London, the general public might be harder, but remember the Hospital Ship from earlier - that should do the trick). 

            Then Sandhurst gets busy, as does Dartmouth, Cranwell and even the Met Police college at Hendon, training the officers of said countries military, police and even civil service, why not. The Conflict, Stability and Security Fund can then provide the newly-trained military with with equipment - most of the funding ending up back in the Treasury's coffers if we provide them with British made rifle, handcuffs and pinstriped suits. 

            While all these land navigation, arresting and Mandarining lessons (watching Yes Minister - The Complete Boxset several times) are ongoing, the nice people at UK Aid and the British Forces travel to our Pacific island. There, they can train the locals and generally integrate into the local community. Basic infantry courses can be set up in most places, as can low level development of infrastructure (courtesy of the CRE) and local medical facilities can be developed - both people and equipment - with local doctors at the forefront of the programme - and with integration to avoid the washing machine fiasco, at the risk of sounding like a broken record. 

            So, there, you have it, with minimal actual spending we have simultaneously made an ally, helped out people in need and stopped Chinese expansion. All in a days work from your local expert at everything (that's me!)

BMR 

God Save The King

PS. Read this by Sir Humphrey, from the Thin Pinstriped Line blog